You've just been elected leader of Northfield Council. Population 185,000. Annual budget: £180 million.
You want to fix the roads. Sort the parks. Keep the libraries open. Maybe actually collect the bins on time.
You have four years. Good luck.
Ask most people what councils spend their money on and they'll say bins, roads, parks. Here's the gap between what residents think — and what's actually true.
Adult social care funds support and services for adults with disabilities, long-term illness, or age-related frailty, helping them live safely and independently. It is the single largest item in most council budgets.
Adult social care costs have grown at around 8.1% per year in cash terms since 2019. An ageing population means more people need care. You cannot reduce demand. You can only find the money — and your only local lever is council tax, legally capped at 5% per year without a referendum, unless the authority has been given a specific different principle by government for that year.
Tool built by Dylan Cridland. Based on paper by Dan Mead.
* Illustrative figure used for this simulation. The actual cash CAGR for adult social care in England was ~8.1% per year between 2019 and 2024. Source: Adult Social Care Finance Report, England: 2024 to 2025, NHS England / GOV.UK.
Tool built by Dylan Cridland. Based on paper by Dan Mead.
Tool built by Dylan Cridland. Based on paper by Dan Mead.
You have lost control of the council.
No council leader in England can win this game under the current funding system.
Social care demand grows faster than council tax can rise. The gap always has to come from somewhere. The question isn't whether to cut — it's which residents you cut for.
Tool built by Dylan Cridland. Based on paper by Dan Mead.
Your council is effectively bankrupt.
This isn't a failure of leadership. It's what happens when national demand meets local funding.
Section 114 used to be rare. Now it's becoming the way the system corrects itself — by collapsing the councils that can't make the numbers work.
But before it gets here, every council goes through the same impossible sequence. Raise council tax to the maximum. Cut the services residents can see. Watch the social care bill grow faster than either can cover. Repeat until the books won't balance.
The gap was always going to land somewhere. Social care is a national responsibility. Council tax is a local one. They were never the same size.
Every council in England faces the same squeeze. In 2025/26, 350 out of the 384 councils in England raised council tax by close to or at the maximum amount allowable — not because they wanted to, but because social care costs left them no choice.
Even at maximum council tax every year, a typical council cannot cover social care demand growth. The gap must come from visible services. The bins, the libraries, the parks — these aren't always cut because of waste or incompetence. They're cut because adult social care is a national problem being solved with a local tax.
Labour Together have a solution. Read the paper below.
Tool built by Dylan Cridland. Based on paper by Dan Mead.
Every council in England faces the same squeeze. In 2025/26, 350 out of the 384 councils in England raised council tax by close to or at the maximum amount allowable — not because they wanted to, but because social care costs left them no choice.
Even at maximum council tax every year, a typical council cannot cover social care demand growth. The gap must come from visible services. The bins, the libraries, the parks — these aren't always cut because of waste or incompetence. They're cut because adult social care is a national problem being solved with a local tax.
Labour Together have a solution. Read the paper below.